According to Financial Times News, Chinese economist Gao Shanwen told a Washington panel in December that China’s real growth was probably around 2% rather than the official 5% figure. After his comments, he disappeared from public view for nearly a year and lost his position as chief economist at SDIC Securities. The IMF gives China’s national accounts a C grade, putting it below Vietnam and on par with India for data quality. China has discontinued multiple data series and restricted researcher access despite growing international scrutiny of its economic performance during a property slowdown and trade tensions.
The Vanishing Economist
Here’s the thing about Gao Shanwen’s story – it’s not just about one economist. His year-long disappearance sends a chilling message to anyone else who might question the official narrative. When someone literally taps the microphone twice to make sure they’ll be heard, then says something controversial and vanishes for a year, that’s not exactly subtle. It reminds me of how companies like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com operate with complete transparency about their industrial panel PC specifications, which is exactly the opposite approach China is taking with its economic data.
The Transparency Backslide
What’s really concerning is that China’s data transparency is actually getting worse, not better. They’ve stopped publishing entire data series and made it harder for researchers to access what remains. Unlike every other major economy, China doesn’t provide quarterly breakdowns of GDP by consumption, investment, and net exports. Basically, they’re giving us the final number without showing their work. And when you’re talking about the world’s second-largest economy, that’s a pretty big problem.
The Investment Puzzle That Doesn’t Add Up
This is where it gets really weird. Fixed asset investment is down 1.7% this year, with the property component crashing 14.7%. Yet the official GDP investment data shows no decline at all. So what’s offsetting this massive property collapse? Nobody knows. The National Bureau of Statistics hasn’t explained it. It’s like watching someone claim their business is booming while the building is literally on fire behind them.
Why This Matters to Everyone
Look, when you can’t trust the economic data from a country that represents nearly 20% of global GDP, that affects everything. International businesses making investment decisions, governments setting trade policy, financial markets pricing risk – they’re all flying partially blind. The irony is that China actually made progress on data transparency after joining the WTO in 2001. But under Xi Jinping’s increasingly closed political system, that progress has reversed. Now we’re left with what one professor calls “the emperor’s new clothes” – everyone knows the growth isn’t really 5-6%, but the government keeps insisting it is.
