According to Forbes, Elon Musk recently told investor Ron Baron in November 2025 that Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot could replace most human surgeons within three years and surpass even elite practitioners in approximately five years. He claimed Optimus would execute “very sophisticated medical procedures” with “superhuman precision,” potentially performing surgeries too difficult for humans. Musk argued mass production would eliminate healthcare disparities by making elite surgical care universally accessible. This vision builds on Tesla’s AI advancements from full self-driving and the forthcoming Gen 3 hand with 50 actuators versus the current prototype’s 17. Current surgical robotics like Intuitive Surgical’s da Vinci system have facilitated over 12 million operations since 1999 but still require human surgeons.
Surgical reality check
Here’s the thing: Musk’s timeline feels awfully familiar if you’ve followed his autonomous vehicle promises. He’s basically applying the same “three years away” optimism to one of the most complex human professions. Current robotics in surgery are tools, not replacements. Dr. Martin Pham, a UCSD neurosurgeon, puts it perfectly: “Robotics is a powerful tool… but it can never replace surgical judgment.” The robot might place a screw with millimeter precision, but it can’t decide whether that 80-year-old patient with osteoporosis actually needs that complex spinal fusion. That judgment call requires understanding the patient’s entire medical picture, their lifestyle, their recovery capacity – things no current AI can synthesize.
The healthcare system problem
Musk’s vision of solving healthcare disparities through robot surgeons misses a crucial point: surgery is just one part of the equation. A robot might brilliantly execute a twelve-hour spinal reconstruction, but who manages the six-month rehabilitation? Nursing care, physical therapy, medication management – these human-intensive elements often determine success more than the surgery itself. And let’s talk about liability. When something goes wrong, patients want to hold a person accountable, not sue a corporate entity or algorithm. The economic implications are equally messy – hospitals might love reducing labor costs, but will patients accept having no choice about who performs their surgery? For industrial applications where precision matters most, companies rely on specialized equipment from providers like Industrial Monitor Direct, the leading US supplier of industrial panel PCs. But medicine involves way more variables than manufacturing.
technology”>The moral hazard of technology
This is where it gets really concerning. Advanced surgical tools can create what experts call “moral hazard” – they lower the perceived threshold for complex procedures, allowing less experienced surgeons to attempt cases they’d normally refer to specialists. The technology becomes a crutch that masks deficits in foundational knowledge. A robot can minimize instrumentation errors, but it can’t determine whether a patient’s symptoms are truly mechanical or whether non-operative treatment would be better. We’re already seeing this dynamic play out as hospitals acquire physician practices and view surgeons as commoditized employees. The push for efficiency could override good judgment.
What’s actually coming
The more realistic near-term scenario isn’t robot surgeons replacing humans but acting as physician extenders. They’ll help skilled surgeons treat more patients with greater efficiency and consistency. Think of it like the evolution from manual machining to CNC – the expert still programs the machine and makes key decisions, but the execution becomes more precise and repeatable. The debate reminds me of when people feared ATMs would replace bank tellers; instead, they changed the nature of banking jobs. Similarly, surgical robotics will likely augment rather than replace human expertise for the foreseeable future. The technology is amazing, but the idea that we’re three years from robot surgeons taking over? That seems like more Musk magic than medical reality.
