According to New Scientist, University of California, Irvine researchers led by Eunju Kang analyzed satellite tracking data during a May 2024 solar storm and found Starlink satellites experienced altitude drops up to half a kilometer, with the most significant effects on satellites facing the sun, near Earth’s poles, and over the South Atlantic Anomaly. The study revealed a “wave effect” where satellites automatically adjusted their positions using ion thrusters to maintain laser communication links, creating unpredictable movements throughout the constellation. During the same storm, network monitoring data showed immediate spikes in packet loss and service outages for Starlink customers. The research comes after a February 2022 solar storm destroyed approximately 40 newly launched Starlink satellites, highlighting growing vulnerability as satellite populations expand during peak solar activity cycles. This emerging threat demands serious consideration of space weather’s impact on orbital infrastructure.
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The Domino Effect in Orbit
The research reveals a particularly concerning phenomenon: when one satellite loses altitude due to increased atmospheric drag from solar radiation, neighboring satellites automatically compensate using their ion thrusters to maintain laser communication links. This creates a “wave effect” throughout the constellation that could have dangerous consequences. As Sangeetha Abdu Jyothi’s research indicates, these unpredictable movements make collision avoidance increasingly difficult for all space operators. What the study doesn’t fully address is how this domino effect might scale with larger constellations – we’re essentially creating interconnected systems where a single solar event could trigger widespread positional changes across thousands of satellites simultaneously.
The Fundamental Problem of Unpredictability
Current space traffic management systems rely on predictable orbital trajectories, but solar storms introduce chaos that existing models cannot handle. As Mathew Owens’ work on space weather shows, the challenge lies in predicting substorms – small atmospheric variations that disproportionately affect different orbits. The real danger isn’t just the immediate altitude changes, but the hours to days of unpredictable satellite positions that follow. This creates a fundamental mismatch between our collision avoidance capabilities and the reality of space weather impacts. With tens of thousands more satellites planned for launch before the next solar maximum in the 2040s, we’re building infrastructure without adequate understanding of its environmental vulnerabilities.
The Regulatory Gap Nobody’s Addressing
Current space regulations focus on debris mitigation and collision avoidance under normal conditions, but completely overlook space weather resilience requirements. The research findings suggest we need new standards for satellite design, constellation architecture, and operational procedures specifically for solar storm conditions. Satellite operators currently face no requirements to demonstrate space weather resilience, nor are there standardized protocols for managing constellations during geomagnetic events. This regulatory gap becomes increasingly dangerous as more critical infrastructure – from global internet to Earth observation – depends on these vulnerable orbital systems.
The Coming Insurance Crisis
The insurance industry hasn’t fully priced in the systemic risk that solar storms pose to satellite constellations. While individual satellite losses from space weather events might be manageable, the potential for cascading effects throughout multiple constellations could create unprecedented claims scenarios. If a Carrington-level event occurred today, we could see simultaneous service disruptions across multiple providers, widespread positional uncertainties creating collision risks, and potential domino effects in congested orbital regions. The insurance market for space assets remains relatively immature, and these findings suggest premiums may need significant adjustment once the full extent of space weather vulnerability becomes apparent.
The Narrow Window for Solutions
We have approximately 15 years before the next solar maximum in the 2040s, but developing and implementing effective countermeasures will require coordinated international effort. Solutions need to address multiple fronts: improved space weather forecasting, more resilient satellite designs with greater propulsion margins, constellation architectures that minimize cascade risks, and enhanced collision avoidance systems that can handle unpredictable movements. The challenge is that these improvements require significant investment while competing with the economic pressure to deploy constellations quickly and cheaply. Without proactive measures, we risk learning about these vulnerabilities through catastrophic failures rather than planned prevention.