Major Policy Shift Drives Emissions Increase
The abrupt cuts to U.S. federal clean energy incentives alongside fresh support for fossil fuel power will trigger a significant increase in North America’s emissions in the coming decades, according to reports from consultancy DNV. Analysis suggests that North America’s power emissions from 2025 to 2050 will be 3 billion metric tons more than was projected in 2022, when the previous U.S. administration had implemented aggressive clean power goals.
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The higher pollution totals reflect a combination of slower growth in U.S. clean power generation – now stifled by the planned phase-out of tax breaks – and the extended use of coal and gas-fired power plants planned under the Trump administration. Sources indicate that expanded use of fossil fuels will result in faster growth in total electricity generation from now through 2040 compared to 2022’s projections.
Coal Generation Sees Dramatic Revival
North American power generation by fossil fuel power sources from 2025 to 2050 will grow by around 8% compared to DNV’s 2022 estimates, according to the analysis. Coal-fired power generation from now through 2050 is projected to be 46% more than was estimated by DNV in 2022, following new policies that will extend the life of U.S. coal power plants by several years.
Emissions from coal-fired generation had been projected to average around 310 million tons of CO2 annually through 2035 in the DNV 2022 report. The current report indicates coal-fired emissions are now seen averaging around 470 million tons annually through 2035, representing a more than 50% increase. Between 2025 and 2050, analysts suggest that sustained higher levels of coal-fired generation will result in 2.6 billion tons of CO2 more than was projected in 2022.
Clean Energy Sector Faces Headwinds
Generation from clean power sources during 2025 to 2050 will decline by around 3% from 2022’s estimates, according to the report. Total power generation from wind farms in North America is estimated to fall by around 24% from DNV’s 2022 estimate, following reductions in federal support for wind development.
Power generation from solar photovoltaic installations is also expected to shrink compared to 2022’s estimates, although only by 5%. The report states that steady declines in solar system costs, coupled with solar remaining the fastest source of new electricity for grid managers, are expected to keep solar capacity growth relatively firm despite policy shifts.
Battery Storage Offers Bright Spot
Continued federal support for battery systems is expected to result in a 71% surge in generation from solar-plus-storage systems compared to DNV’s 2022 estimates. Sharply lower battery costs compared to 2022 are cited as another factor driving expected solar-plus-storage uptake.
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The Trump administration has reportedly justified extended use of coal plants by pointing to rapidly rising electricity demand from data centers and other businesses, arguing this could result in potential power shortages unless output from fossil fuel plants increases. Analysis confirms that total power output in North America will rise faster through 2040 under the current administration’s policy scenario.
Long-Term Emissions Impact
In its 2022 outlook, DNV estimated that North America’s power emissions after carbon capture were likely to decline from around 1.2 billion tons of CO2 annually in the 2020s to around 360 million tons annually by the 2040s. The 2025 report, however, shows those emissions estimates trending higher for the next decade, averaging about 100 million tons of CO2 more than the 2022 projections.
Analysts suggest that while the policy changes will result in higher total power generation, this comes with a sharp rise in power emissions that could potentially be avoided with a cleaner power mix. The report indicates that total power sector emissions between 2025 and 2050 are now projected to be approximately 3.2 billion tons higher than previously estimated.
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