Global Policymakers Face Data Blindness as U.S. Shutdown Continues
The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has created a significant data vacuum that is complicating economic decision-making worldwide, according to reports from international financial officials. The halt in official U.S. economic data dissemination is affecting policymakers in countries including Japan and the United Kingdom, who rely on insights from the world’s largest economy to inform their own currency, trade, and inflation outlooks.
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International Officials Express Growing Concern
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda described the situation as “a serious problem” during an October 3 news briefing, while an unnamed Japanese policymaker went further, calling the data absence “a joke” given the Federal Reserve’s stated dependence on economic indicators. The report states that being left “data-blind” could complicate international policymaking and boost the risk of errors at a time when countries are already adjusting to the Trump administration’s trade policies.
Long-Term Risks to U.S. Economic Leadership
Bank of England policy member Catherine Mann reportedly compared the potential erosion of U.S. economic influence to “termites” that gradually weaken structural integrity over time. Analysts suggest that while immediate policy changes aren’t imminent, the shutdown and surrounding controversies could gradually undermine confidence in U.S. data reliability and the dollar’s standing. According to sources, this represents a longer-term challenge to institutional independence and data credibility.
IMF Meetings Dominated by U.S. Policy Discussions
Finance leaders gathered in Washington for International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings are reportedly focusing significant attention on U.S. developments. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook, published Tuesday, warned that “intensification of political pressure on policy institutions…could erode hard-won public confidence in their ability to fulfill their mandates.” The report indicates that pressures on data collection agencies “could also erode the public’s and markets’ trust in statistics from official sources.”
Partial Data Alternatives Provide Limited Relief
While not all economic information has disappeared—the self-funded Federal Reserve continues its surveys and private data services offer alternatives—analysts suggest these are imperfect substitutes. Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, reportedly stated that the shutdown “contributes to the general skepticism about the governance of the U.S. and the reliability of the U.S.” which eventually “feeds into reserve management and currency decisions.”
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Growing Uncertainty in Global Economic Assessment
Robert Kahn, director of global macro at Eurasia Group, indicated that policymakers are dedicating substantial effort to gather alternative information about the U.S. economy. However, sources suggest that “how best to put it together, and importantly how markets will react to such news, are critical unknowns.” The report concludes that “as time goes on, the risk of error rises as uncertainties compound” in the absence of reliable data from the $30 trillion U.S. economy that accounts for roughly one-fourth of world output.
Reporting based on Reuters coverage from Tokyo and Washington. Additional context available through authorized news licensing.
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