TotalEnergies Bets Big on Mozambique’s $20B LNG Revival After Four-Year Security Standoff

In a move that signals both remarkable confidence in regional security improvements and strategic positioning in the global gas markets, TotalEnergies is preparing to restart one of Africa’s most ambitious energy projects after a four-year security-induced hiatus. The French energy giant’s decision to lift force majeure on its $20 billion Mozambique LNG development represents not just a corporate milestone but a critical test case for major energy investments in politically volatile regions.

From Security Crisis to Strategic Revival

When Islamist militants launched a deadly attack in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province in 2021, forcing TotalEnergies to invoke force majeure provisions, many industry observers wondered if the project would ever recover. The speed and severity of the security collapse had sent shockwaves through the energy investment community, raising fundamental questions about whether major LNG projects could succeed in regions with active insurgencies.

What’s changed in four years? According to reports, Mozambique’s military collaboration with Rwandan forces has fundamentally altered the security landscape around the Afungi Peninsula where the Total-led project is located. The sustained military presence and apparent success in containing the insurgency have given TotalEnergies and its partners—including Japanese energy company Mitsui—enough confidence to proceed. This isn’t just about restoring order; it’s about demonstrating that such security partnerships can create stable enough conditions for multi-decade, capital-intensive projects.

The Global LNG Context: Timing Is Everything

TotalEnergies’ decision comes at a fascinating moment in global energy markets. While European nations continue their push toward renewable energy, the reality is that LNG demand remains robust, particularly as Asian economies continue their growth trajectories and European countries seek alternatives to Russian pipeline gas. The Mozambique LNG project, with its planned capacity of up to 43 million tons per year, positions TotalEnergies to capture significant market share in both regions.

What many casual observers miss is the strategic timing. Major LNG projects typically take 5-7 years from final investment decision to first production. By moving now, TotalEnergies could be positioning itself to bring substantial new volumes online just as many analysts predict a tightening global LNG market in the late 2020s. Meanwhile, competitors who’ve been more cautious about similar mega-projects might find themselves playing catch-up.

The Ripple Effect on Exxon’s Parallel Project

Perhaps the most immediate impact of TotalEnergies’ decision will be on ExxonMobil’s neighboring $30 billion development. The two projects, while separate, share infrastructure concerns and security challenges. Total’s move to lift force majeure essentially serves as a corporate vote of confidence that could accelerate Exxon’s own timeline.

This isn’t merely speculative—last month, Exxon CEO Darren Woods reportedly sought direct reassurances from Mozambican President Daniel Chapo about regional security. With TotalEnergies now moving forward, Exxon faces both reduced political risk and increased competitive pressure to advance its own project. The dynamics here resemble a high-stakes game of chicken, and Total just blinked first in the best possible way for both companies.

Economic Transformation Amid Ongoing Controversy

For Mozambique, the restart represents nothing short of economic destiny. The project has been touted as potentially transformative for one of the world’s poorest nations, promising to catapult Mozambique into the ranks of major global energy exporters. The government’s urgent need for revenue and economic development undoubtedly created significant pressure to resolve security concerns.

Yet the project’s revival comes with unresolved ethical questions. Reports of human rights abuses by Mozambican soldiers protecting the project, coupled with the UK government’s apparent reconsideration of its $1.15 billion backing, highlight the complex moral calculus facing Western energy companies operating in developing nations. TotalEnergies must navigate not just physical security concerns but also the court of international public opinion.

The Consortium Dynamics and Financial Backing

The decision to proceed wasn’t made in isolation. As with most mega-projects, the consortium structure means multiple stakeholders had to reach consensus on security assessments and financial commitments. The involvement of Mitsui brings Japanese energy security interests into the equation, while the US government’s loan backing adds geopolitical dimensions to what might otherwise be viewed as purely commercial considerations.

What’s particularly interesting is how the consortium managed internal risk assessments during the four-year pause. Major energy projects typically have complex insurance and financing arrangements that become increasingly difficult to maintain during extended force majeure periods. The fact that the financial architecture remained intact suggests both strong consortium cohesion and underlying confidence in the project’s fundamental economics.

Market Implications and Competitive Landscape

TotalEnergies’ move sends ripples beyond Mozambique’s borders. For the global LNG industry, it demonstrates that even projects in challenging security environments can be revived with sufficient political and military support. This could encourage similar developments in other frontier regions, though each would need to overcome their own unique challenges.

From a competitive standpoint, TotalEnergies is making a bold statement about its appetite for calculated risk in pursuit of growth. While many European energy peers have become more cautious about mega-projects amid energy transition pressures, Total appears committed to maintaining its position in global gas markets. The 43 million ton capacity would represent significant additional volume in a market where project sanctions have been relatively scarce in recent years.

The Road Ahead: Challenges Remain

While lifting force majeure marks a critical milestone, significant hurdles remain. The Mozambican government must still approve updated project budgets, and the consortium will need to remobilize workforces and supply chains after a four-year hiatus. The human rights review commissioned by the UK government could also influence international support and financing.

Perhaps most importantly, the security situation, while improved, remains fragile. Maintaining stability throughout the construction phase—which will bring thousands of foreign workers into the region—represents an ongoing challenge. TotalEnergies and its partners will need to balance operational urgency with continued vigilance in a region that has proven volatile.

What’s clear is that TotalEnergies has made a calculated bet that the rewards outweigh the risks. In doing so, they’ve not just revived a single project but potentially rewritten the playbook for how major energy companies approach investments in challenging environments. The world will be watching to see if that bet pays off.